Research edition · 17 October 2026 · Pre-release

AITS — nominal and real sensitivity research

All 135 hypothetical cases, with methods, assumptions and interpretation limits.

Research question and design

When does a nominal-versus-real present-value comparison preserve consistent units, and how do inflation assumptions change future purchasing units? All 135 cases are shown below: three horizons, three annual cashflow amounts, three nominal rates and five inflation assumptions. Values are generic units, not a security or currency quote.

Assumptions

Fixed annual nominal payments of 0, 3 or 7 generic units, plus a terminal payment of 100, occur over 2, 5 or 10 years. Nominal discount rates are assumed at 3%, 5% or 7%; inflation at 0%, 2%, 4%, 6% or 8%. Annual compounding and certain cashflows are assumed. Observed CPI is not used as forward inflation or a model forecast.

Methods and units

Real discount rate = (1 + nominal rate) / (1 + assumed inflation) − 1. Real cashflow at year t = nominal cashflow / (1 + assumed inflation)^t. Present value sums each cashflow divided by its consistent discount factor. Intermediate Decimal precision is 50; the retained outputs are reported to eight decimal places. The real-rate column is a decimal fraction, not a percentage.

How to read the results

With fixed nominal cashflows and consistently deflated cashflows/real rates, nominal and real present values agree at the same base date. This is a change-of-units identity, not evidence that inflation has no economic effect. Terminal purchasing units decline as the inflation assumption rises. Mixing nominal cashflows with a real rate without deflation would break unit consistency. No future investment return follows from this identity.

2-year cases

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2-year horizon — all 45 cases
CaseAnnual nominal amountAssumed nominal rateAssumed inflationReal rate, decimalNominal PVReal PV, base-date unitsTerminal 100 purchasing units
00103.00%0%0.0300000094.2595909194.25959091100.00000000
00203.00%2.00%0.0098039294.2595909194.2595909196.11687812
00303.00%4.00%-0.0096153894.2595909194.2595909192.45562130
00403.00%6.00%-0.0283018994.2595909194.2595909188.99964400
00503.00%8.00%-0.0462963094.2595909194.2595909185.73388203
00605.00%0%0.0500000090.7029478590.70294785100.00000000
00705.00%2.00%0.0294117690.7029478590.7029478596.11687812
00805.00%4.00%0.0096153890.7029478590.7029478592.45562130
00905.00%6.00%-0.0094339690.7029478590.7029478588.99964400
01005.00%8.00%-0.0277777890.7029478590.7029478585.73388203
01107.00%0%0.0700000087.3438728387.34387283100.00000000
01207.00%2.00%0.0490196187.3438728387.3438728396.11687812
01307.00%4.00%0.0288461587.3438728387.3438728392.45562130
01407.00%6.00%0.0094339687.3438728387.3438728388.99964400
01507.00%8.00%-0.0092592687.3438728387.3438728385.73388203
01633.00%0%0.03000000100.00000000100.00000000100.00000000
01733.00%2.00%0.00980392100.00000000100.0000000096.11687812
01833.00%4.00%-0.00961538100.00000000100.0000000092.45562130
01933.00%6.00%-0.02830189100.00000000100.0000000088.99964400
02033.00%8.00%-0.04629630100.00000000100.0000000085.73388203
02135.00%0%0.0500000096.2811791496.28117914100.00000000
02235.00%2.00%0.0294117696.2811791496.2811791496.11687812
02335.00%4.00%0.0096153896.2811791496.2811791492.45562130
02435.00%6.00%-0.0094339696.2811791496.2811791488.99964400
02535.00%8.00%-0.0277777896.2811791496.2811791485.73388203
02637.00%0%0.0700000092.7679273392.76792733100.00000000
02737.00%2.00%0.0490196192.7679273392.7679273396.11687812
02837.00%4.00%0.0288461592.7679273392.7679273392.45562130
02937.00%6.00%0.0094339692.7679273392.7679273388.99964400
03037.00%8.00%-0.0092592692.7679273392.7679273385.73388203
03173.00%0%0.03000000107.65387878107.65387878100.00000000
03273.00%2.00%0.00980392107.65387878107.6538787896.11687812
03373.00%4.00%-0.00961538107.65387878107.6538787892.45562130
03473.00%6.00%-0.02830189107.65387878107.6538787888.99964400
03573.00%8.00%-0.04629630107.65387878107.6538787885.73388203
03675.00%0%0.05000000103.71882086103.71882086100.00000000
03775.00%2.00%0.02941176103.71882086103.7188208696.11687812
03875.00%4.00%0.00961538103.71882086103.7188208692.45562130
03975.00%6.00%-0.00943396103.71882086103.7188208688.99964400
04075.00%8.00%-0.02777778103.71882086103.7188208685.73388203
04177.00%0%0.07000000100.00000000100.00000000100.00000000
04277.00%2.00%0.04901961100.00000000100.0000000096.11687812
04377.00%4.00%0.02884615100.00000000100.0000000092.45562130
04477.00%6.00%0.00943396100.00000000100.0000000088.99964400
04577.00%8.00%-0.00925926100.00000000100.0000000085.73388203

5-year cases

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5-year horizon — all 45 cases
CaseAnnual nominal amountAssumed nominal rateAssumed inflationReal rate, decimalNominal PVReal PV, base-date unitsTerminal 100 purchasing units
04603.00%0%0.0300000086.2608784486.26087844100.00000000
04703.00%2.00%0.0098039286.2608784486.2608784490.57308098
04803.00%4.00%-0.0096153886.2608784486.2608784482.19271068
04903.00%6.00%-0.0283018986.2608784486.2608784474.72581729
05003.00%8.00%-0.0462963086.2608784486.2608784468.05831970
05105.00%0%0.0500000078.3526166578.35261665100.00000000
05205.00%2.00%0.0294117678.3526166578.3526166590.57308098
05305.00%4.00%0.0096153878.3526166578.3526166582.19271068
05405.00%6.00%-0.0094339678.3526166578.3526166574.72581729
05505.00%8.00%-0.0277777878.3526166578.3526166568.05831970
05607.00%0%0.0700000071.2986179571.29861795100.00000000
05707.00%2.00%0.0490196171.2986179571.2986179590.57308098
05807.00%4.00%0.0288461571.2986179571.2986179582.19271068
05907.00%6.00%0.0094339671.2986179571.2986179574.72581729
06007.00%8.00%-0.0092592671.2986179571.2986179568.05831970
06133.00%0%0.03000000100.00000000100.00000000100.00000000
06233.00%2.00%0.00980392100.00000000100.0000000090.57308098
06333.00%4.00%-0.00961538100.00000000100.0000000082.19271068
06433.00%6.00%-0.02830189100.00000000100.0000000074.72581729
06533.00%8.00%-0.04629630100.00000000100.0000000068.05831970
06635.00%0%0.0500000091.3410466691.34104666100.00000000
06735.00%2.00%0.0294117691.3410466691.3410466690.57308098
06835.00%4.00%0.0096153891.3410466691.3410466682.19271068
06935.00%6.00%-0.0094339691.3410466691.3410466674.72581729
07035.00%8.00%-0.0277777891.3410466691.3410466668.05831970
07137.00%0%0.0700000083.5992102683.59921026100.00000000
07237.00%2.00%0.0490196183.5992102683.5992102690.57308098
07337.00%4.00%0.0288461583.5992102683.5992102682.19271068
07437.00%6.00%0.0094339683.5992102683.5992102674.72581729
07537.00%8.00%-0.0092592683.5992102683.5992102668.05831970
07673.00%0%0.03000000118.31882875118.31882875100.00000000
07773.00%2.00%0.00980392118.31882875118.3188287590.57308098
07873.00%4.00%-0.00961538118.31882875118.3188287582.19271068
07973.00%6.00%-0.02830189118.31882875118.3188287574.72581729
08073.00%8.00%-0.04629630118.31882875118.3188287568.05831970
08175.00%0%0.05000000108.65895334108.65895334100.00000000
08275.00%2.00%0.02941176108.65895334108.6589533490.57308098
08375.00%4.00%0.00961538108.65895334108.6589533482.19271068
08475.00%6.00%-0.00943396108.65895334108.6589533474.72581729
08575.00%8.00%-0.02777778108.65895334108.6589533468.05831970
08677.00%0%0.07000000100.00000000100.00000000100.00000000
08777.00%2.00%0.04901961100.00000000100.0000000090.57308098
08877.00%4.00%0.02884615100.00000000100.0000000082.19271068
08977.00%6.00%0.00943396100.00000000100.0000000074.72581729
09077.00%8.00%-0.00925926100.00000000100.0000000068.05831970

10-year cases

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10-year horizon — all 45 cases
CaseAnnual nominal amountAssumed nominal rateAssumed inflationReal rate, decimalNominal PVReal PV, base-date unitsTerminal 100 purchasing units
09103.00%0%0.0300000074.4093914974.40939149100.00000000
09203.00%2.00%0.0098039274.4093914974.4093914982.03482999
09303.00%4.00%-0.0096153874.4093914974.4093914967.55641688
09403.00%6.00%-0.0283018974.4093914974.4093914955.83947769
09503.00%8.00%-0.0462963074.4093914974.4093914946.31934881
09605.00%0%0.0500000061.3913253561.39132535100.00000000
09705.00%2.00%0.0294117661.3913253561.3913253582.03482999
09805.00%4.00%0.0096153861.3913253561.3913253567.55641688
09905.00%6.00%-0.0094339661.3913253561.3913253555.83947769
10005.00%8.00%-0.0277777861.3913253561.3913253546.31934881
10107.00%0%0.0700000050.8349292150.83492921100.00000000
10207.00%2.00%0.0490196150.8349292150.8349292182.03482999
10307.00%4.00%0.0288461550.8349292150.8349292167.55641688
10407.00%6.00%0.0094339650.8349292150.8349292155.83947769
10507.00%8.00%-0.0092592650.8349292150.8349292146.31934881
10633.00%0%0.03000000100.00000000100.00000000100.00000000
10733.00%2.00%0.00980392100.00000000100.0000000082.03482999
10833.00%4.00%-0.00961538100.00000000100.0000000067.55641688
10933.00%6.00%-0.02830189100.00000000100.0000000055.83947769
11033.00%8.00%-0.04629630100.00000000100.0000000046.31934881
11135.00%0%0.0500000084.5565301484.55653014100.00000000
11235.00%2.00%0.0294117684.5565301484.5565301482.03482999
11335.00%4.00%0.0096153884.5565301484.5565301467.55641688
11435.00%6.00%-0.0094339684.5565301484.5565301455.83947769
11535.00%8.00%-0.0277777884.5565301484.5565301446.31934881
11637.00%0%0.0700000071.9056738471.90567384100.00000000
11737.00%2.00%0.0490196171.9056738471.9056738482.03482999
11837.00%4.00%0.0288461571.9056738471.9056738467.55641688
11937.00%6.00%0.0094339671.9056738471.9056738455.83947769
12037.00%8.00%-0.0092592671.9056738471.9056738446.31934881
12173.00%0%0.03000000134.12081135134.12081135100.00000000
12273.00%2.00%0.00980392134.12081135134.1208113582.03482999
12373.00%4.00%-0.00961538134.12081135134.1208113567.55641688
12473.00%6.00%-0.02830189134.12081135134.1208113555.83947769
12573.00%8.00%-0.04629630134.12081135134.1208113546.31934881
12675.00%0%0.05000000115.44346986115.44346986100.00000000
12775.00%2.00%0.02941176115.44346986115.4434698682.03482999
12875.00%4.00%0.00961538115.44346986115.4434698667.55641688
12975.00%6.00%-0.00943396115.44346986115.4434698655.83947769
13075.00%8.00%-0.02777778115.44346986115.4434698646.31934881
13177.00%0%0.07000000100.00000000100.00000000100.00000000
13277.00%2.00%0.04901961100.00000000100.0000000082.03482999
13377.00%4.00%0.02884615100.00000000100.0000000067.55641688
13477.00%6.00%0.00943396100.00000000100.0000000055.83947769
13577.00%8.00%-0.00925926100.00000000100.0000000046.31934881

Research-only boundaries

Flat assumed rates and fixed certain payments omit taxes, fees, default, credit spread, liquidity and uncertain cashflows. No instrument, portfolio, strategy performance, predictive validation, backtest, recommendation, ranking, allocation, order or execution is supplied. Independent model and customer-value acceptance remain unissued. The earlier nominal-rate sensitivity and haircut study is separate; no existing validation suite was rerun to assemble these cases.

Methods provenance and corrections

The displayed cases are copied from the preserved V2 nominal/real study and its pure research methods, not newly calibrated from macro releases. The companion manifest retains their exact original hashes. A numerical correction requires a successor with changed inputs, methods and dependent outputs identified; this local edition is not an independent model review.