Research question and scope
Do the observed curve changes and available macro releases form one synchronized signal? They do not share a reference period or measurement basis. This edition combines five Treasury maturities on 11 observed dates with selected price, labor and output releases. It is a research document, not an authenticated workspace, saved-history service or accepted archive.
Curve observations
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| Observation date | 3 months | 2 years | 5 years | 10 years | 30 years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | 4.17 | 4.78 | 5.01 | 5.24 | 5.61 |
| 2026-10-02 | 4.19 | 4.83 | 5.06 | 5.28 | 5.63 |
| 2026-10-05 | 4.22 | 4.84 | 5.06 | 5.31 | 5.66 |
| 2026-10-06 | 4.21 | 4.79 | 5.03 | 5.27 | 5.64 |
| 2026-10-07 | 4.22 | 4.77 | 5.03 | 5.28 | 5.67 |
| 2026-10-08 | 4.23 | 4.75 | 4.99 | 5.22 | 5.60 |
| 2026-10-09 | 4.25 | 4.80 | 5.02 | 5.24 | 5.60 |
| 2026-10-13 | 4.26 | 4.79 | 5.00 | 5.21 | 5.56 |
| 2026-10-14 | 4.28 | 4.82 | 5.00 | 5.19 | 5.52 |
| 2026-10-15 | 4.28 | 4.77 | 4.91 | 5.10 | 5.43 |
| 2026-10-16 | 4.26 | 4.74 | 4.89 | 5.09 | 5.43 |
The preserved source window is October 1–16, 2026. Missing calendar dates are October 3, 4, 10, 11 and 12. No reason is assigned to the absent October 12 row and no value is interpolated.
Comparison windows and curve shape
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| Maturity | Oct 1, % p.a. | Oct 16, % p.a. | Oct 1–16, bp | Oct 9–16, bp | Observed range, % p.a. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Mo | 4.17 | 4.26 | 9.00 | 1.00 | 4.17–4.28 |
| 2 Yr | 4.78 | 4.74 | -4.00 | -6.00 | 4.74–4.84 |
| 5 Yr | 5.01 | 4.89 | -12.00 | -13.00 | 4.89–5.06 |
| 10 Yr | 5.24 | 5.09 | -15.00 | -15.00 | 5.09–5.31 |
| 30 Yr | 5.61 | 5.43 | -18.00 | -17.00 | 5.43–5.67 |
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| Date | 10-year minus 2-year, bp | 10-year minus 3-month, bp |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | 46.00 | 107.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | 45.00 | 109.00 |
| 2026-10-05 | 47.00 | 109.00 |
| 2026-10-06 | 48.00 | 106.00 |
| 2026-10-07 | 51.00 | 106.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | 47.00 | 99.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | 44.00 | 99.00 |
| 2026-10-13 | 42.00 | 95.00 |
| 2026-10-14 | 37.00 | 91.00 |
| 2026-10-15 | 33.00 | 82.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | 35.00 | 83.00 |
Basis points equal the percentage-point difference multiplied by 100. The short and longer maturities did not move uniformly over the full window. Adjacent observed dates are not uniformly spaced; the longest gap is four calendar days. Simple observation means are not calendar-weighted.
Release vintages and survey scope
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| Claim | Reference period | Value and units | Release date | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI_MOM | 2026-09 | 0.6 percent | 2026-10-14 | seasonally adjusted monthly change |
| CPI_YOY | 12 months through 2026-09 | 3.7 percent | 2026-10-14 | not seasonally adjusted 12-month change |
| CORE_CPI_MOM | 2026-09 | 0.3 percent | 2026-10-14 | seasonally adjusted monthly change excluding food/energy |
| PAYROLL | 2026-09 | 29000 jobs | 2026-10-02 | establishment survey monthly payroll change; seasonally adjusted |
| UNEMPLOYMENT | 2026-09 | 4.2 percent | 2026-10-02 | household survey unemployment rate; seasonally adjusted |
| GDP_Q2 | 2026-Q2 | 2.2 percent annualized | 2026-09-30 | real GDP quarter-to-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate; third estimate |
| GDP_SECOND | 2026-Q2 | 1.5 percent annualized | 2026-09-30 | second estimate displayed as prior vintage |
| GDP_REVISION | 2026-Q2 | 0.7 percentage points annualized | 2026-09-30 | revision of third versus second estimate; not a growth rate |
CPI measures consumer prices; real GDP measures inflation-adjusted output. The household and establishment surveys cover different concepts. A monthly seasonally adjusted rate cannot be treated as the same quantity as an unadjusted twelve-month rate.
Reproducible unit example
For the rounded 2.2% annualized GDP rate, the equivalent compounded quarter is approximately 0.55%: ((1 + 2.2/100)^(1/4) − 1) × 100. Dividing by four is a linear approximation. The revision from 1.5% to 2.2% is 0.7 percentage point, not 0.7% relative growth. The derived decimals do not increase the source estimate’s precision.
Methods and interpretation limits
All 55 Treasury values retain their date, source field and percent-per-annum unit in the preserved ledger. Differences, ranges and spreads use those fixed observations. Par yields are indicative interpolated benchmarks, not a spot discount curve or executable quotes. No causal interpretation, backtest, market forecast or financing-cost conclusion is supplied; those require additional evidence and assumptions.
Corrections and later editions
A correction must identify the affected claim and reference period, retain this original edition, cite revised source evidence, and explain any changed calculation or conclusion. A successor should say what changed and why. This local edition does not demonstrate that corrections or withdrawal notices reached a customer.
Sources and provenance
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — September 2026 CPI
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics — September 2026 employment
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — Q2 2026 GDP, third estimate
- U.S. Treasury — 2026 daily par-yield data
Source versions were preserved for this edition. Treasury observations come from captured public XML. BLS and BEA claims use preserved research-tool extracts of public releases, not preserved original server HTML. Retrieval is not an observation or publication time; dated source revisions require a successor edition.